The traders lose as they are driven by emotions and they fail to make a proper decision on time. Trading Psychology is an important factor to be considered. It is the sole criteria to determine success or failure. The traders should not be a victim of their psychological demands. They have to keep a cool mind.Fibonacci numbers and the golden ratio must be followed by every trader. These are destined to meet with 100% results. If they are not adhered to then they can spell disaster. 95% of the traders will lose their money. Apart from these there are techniques like the trend lines, moving averages, that a trader should implement. The traders of Forex forum must be aware of these developments in the sphere of trading. Everything depends on the traders. His patience, his knowledge of the trading secrets will show him the way to attain success.All the individuals are keen to make maximum from their money without being cheated. Reaping full returns is what Forex trading forum aims at. They have become conscious of their money investments. They People are scared of being cheated by investing money and not getting sufficient returns. They desperately seek guidance. The Peter Baines site is the answer to their queries. It gives information that is valuable to the new trader. The four main tools of trade are MACD divergence, pivot point, and trend line analysis. The Forex forums lay emphasis on these aspects. It is highly beneficial for the novice.The dollar fetched a high price yesterday as its global reserve currency status came back to the limelight. This was the outcome of weak US unemployment statistics. Unemployment figures rose much more than the analyst could contemplate. This necessitated the demand for safe haven currencies like USD, and the strong position of the USD made crude oil prices crumble. Today trading in JPY is a safe bet. At the starting of the week, the Forex trading forum appeared to be flatter than it usually is. Most of the currencies have disappeared and the technical charts are displaying consolidation. The pressure is enormous and in the G8 meeting the leaders will discuss the plans aiming at economical recovery. The main talking points will be reported by the person’s concerned to the people.Log on to http://www.moneytec.com to get an all comprehensive idea of Forex Forum.

Forex trading refers to an international, 24/5 (Monday through Friday), over the counter exchange marketplace where currencies of various countries are bought and sold. Forex trading is at all times done in pairs assuming the cost of currency bought will and be sold afterward for a profit. The Forex marketpalce is the biggest global financial market making it unattainable for any single investor to influence the prices of currencies.

Here are two kinds of FOREX investing strategies:

Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis

Technical analysis is mostly undertaken by little to medium sizeed Forex investors. A technical analysis constantly considers factors that are in fact affecting the marketplace rather than factors that can potentially affect it. Therefore the cost quoted reflects all the factors influencing it. Only marketplace generated data and statistics are taken into focuc, and factors like concern, optimism, expectations or other changes are not considered. Therefore the analysis is usually based on these suppositions:

Cost reflects all actual market activities. That means price includes everything known to the marketplace like supply and demand. This includes the proven data of foreign exchange, political factors, trade agreements etc. The data is not concerned with what resulted in change rather than dealing with actual changes. It works on the basic assumption that price can take only one of the three directions:

Upwards Downwards Sidewards

It rests on the marketplaces patterns that have been identified as important. This means those factors which are repetitive in nature or will deliver the desired results.

History most certainly repeats itself as human psychology changes very gradually with time. That is to mean market actions are predictable.

Various Technical Indicators are:

1. Comparative Strength Indexes:

This takes into account the ratios of upward and downward trends in the index and expresses it in the range of zero to one hundred.

2.Charts:

Charts include various slopes or curves that develop on a chart over a time and ultimately will reveal some major and minor changes in trading patterns. Some of the chart formations include:

TRIANGLE

RECTANGLE

HEAD AND SHOULDERS

DOUBLE TOP AND BOTTOM

SAUCERS

3.Gaps:

A Forex “gap” represents an area on a bar chart where no trading took place.

UPGAP: Is formed when the lowest price on a specific day is more than the highest price of previous day. DOWNGAP: Is formed when highest price of a certain day is less than the lowest price on previous day.

NUMBERS:

Various number theories are used in technical analysis such as:

The Fibonacci theory GANN

STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR:

This indicates the overbought or/and undersold condition in the Forex marketplace. It uses a range of zero to one hundred percent.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

This involves the examination of current economic, political, financial circumstances of the country of currencies. A country’s economical and political condition depends upon many factors like the current interest rate, unemployment levels, imports and exports, per capital income levels, percentage of population living above and below the poverty line, inflation, trade relations with other countries, tariff policies etc.

A fundamental analyst will study and evaluate all these factors before coming to any decision. Therefore it helps in long tem decision making and making profits in the short term by extraordinary developments.

Some of the indicators that help in fundamental analysis include:

1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REVIEW:

GDP reflects the gross market value of all the goods and services produced in a country during a given year.

2. RETAIL SALES:

This reflects gross receipts and sales by all the retail stores in a country during a specified time frame.

3. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX:

This reflects changes in prices of consumer goods.

4. BUSINESS CYCLE:

This reflects various phases through which a business passes. These phases usually include:

EXPANSION

PEAK

RECESSION

DEPRESSION

5. MONETARY POLICY:

This controls the supply of money in an economy.

Trading successfully takes expertise, as well as time and understanding of the marketplace. You cannot earn continuously in a Forex market due to its unstable nature. Thus as a trader you should try to consider both technical and fundamental strategies of Forex trading and make decisions based only on market expectations and trends. Try trading with money that you can afford to lose without any regrets. At all times remember to trade with logic and using some of the strategies discussed above for the greatest long term results.

What is technical analysis and is trading based on technical analysis profitable?
Lets start with my definition of what I consider is technical analysis of financial price data. Technical analysis is using graphical charts to identify buy and sell patterns every possible way. With statistics proving that using these patterns gives a better chance for successfully trading the stock market. Let’s have a look at what kind of information we are looking for on the chart.
A first basic pattern is the breaking of a trend line and is a very powerful indication that the trend is reversing. A closing price breaking a downtrend line is generally a confirmation that the last turning point is a trend reversal.
A second basic pattern for making buying or selling decisions is the breaking of a horizontal resistance level, or a price turning at the level of a horizontal support line found at price turning points.
A third possibility is making use of more complex reversal and continuation price patterns like a head and shoulders reversal pattern, a triangle, rectangle or diamond continuation pattern, and so on.
A fourth possibility is using the Eastern candlestick chart instead of the normal Western bar chart. Candlesticks show a number of bottom and top reversal patterns and some continuation patterns that can be used successfully for entering or exiting a trade. These patterns have exotic names like bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, doji, harami, hanging man, evening and morning star and much more.
A fifth possibility is counting Elliott impulse and correction waves. Ideally you can enter an up move just after the start of a medium to longer term impulse wave 3, generally after an ABC correction wave for the creation of correction wave 2. Most of the time a 3-wave has an extension with another impulse wave of a lower degree.
A sixth possibility is using oscillators and indicators looking at overbought and oversold areas and specifically at normal and hidden price/indicator divergences announcing trend reversals or previous trend continuations.
Can you imagine the decision making power you have for buying or selling a stock combining all of these techniques? Most reversals in price are announced by more of the previous mentioned techniques. But there is more than just the technical analysis.
Before we can answer the question, “is trading based on technical analysis profitable?” we have beside the use of technical analysis to define entry and exit points, the need for good money and risk management. First let’s talk about money management. Personally I prefer the method that has proven to be the most profitable with the best results in every test I made. That is using a limited fixed number of stocks where every stock gets an equal part of the capital at the start, but there is no profit or loss sharing between the stocks. It has also the big advantage that it is so much more easy to follow-up just a small number of stocks with detailed technical analysis.
Risk management makes sure that the risk-to-reward ratio is in favor of the reward. Opening a trade you must limit the risk and make sure that the first reward target is better than the risk. Future price projection techniques will give you an estimate as to where price can go. Once an open position, you must also use a trailing stop method to make sure you keep the profit and that you will close the trade if standard technical analysis fails. Future price estimates can be made using Fibonacci projections crossing pitchfork channels and a number of other techniques.
It should be clear by now that the pure technical analyst does not look for fundamental data about the stock he is trading. You could basically leave out the name and even the time period from the chart and the technical trader will still be able to do the job. Because price data moves in a fractal way you can basically trade with the same rules in any time frame, from bar charts using minutes, hours, days or weeks.
So, the big question again, is trading based on technical analysis techniques profitable? YES it is! The easiest way for me to prove this is using an automatic trading system based on technical analysis to buy and sell. The SATS2 auto-trading-system I am using is now about 2 years old, does not use any optimizing and is still giving good results over the last 7 months before today’s date of October 27, 2009. Since the start of the test period on March 13, 2009 and closing on October 23, 2009, or about 7 months, it generates a profit of 156% using my own 38 US stocks selection that I am following-up closely.
Since this is an automated system, it has its limitations and is certainly not as intelligent as you can be, looking at the chart yourself. It is clear that making manual buy and sell decisions should still give an even much better result. But I just wanted to make my point here that trading based on technical analysis is profitable.
In this article I tried to answer the question of what is technical analysis and is trading based on technical analysis profitable. I hope I have convinced you that yes it can be very profitable.

This delusion globally entails identical aftermaths: 90-95% of traders turn steady to loose their deposits having studied books by Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Thomas Demark, J. Schwager, et al.

Following the burn down of their first deposit trader’s plunge themselves again into scrutinizing Forex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. I will hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats his forerunners’ mistakes.

This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers… But the figure has always been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isn’t because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June “Intraday trading: secrets of mastership”. With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whether there is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure. NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, but having never raised the issue.

WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline in number of those chasing easy profits from the world Forex market. Otherwise banks would not keep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by few points less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficial maxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universal practice.

As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. It’s them, who have understood Forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings in amounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life. Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp laws of commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple that presently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have been easily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations being established in the post-Soviet space.

I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the way we are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or fall down, all of a sudden.

With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than the ones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many.

By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way of taking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used to earn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at that epoch.

AND WHAT’S NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread without commission and slippage.

Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive Forex market laws. In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, let’s at the outset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature on the issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitals expressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).

Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people:- scrutinize the really great traders’ heritage;- open accounts with Forex Broker’s and banks, start trading and…- loose funds up to complete rout!

AND WHERE’S THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself… There’s something wrong in the literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is as disappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results.

STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following:

1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher.

2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the Forex market is changing.

3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THEN

FOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete or naïve.

Thus, once one’s advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loose their money in each country, where one’s books have used to be published and have enjoyed all sorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER.

Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forex literature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are “confided” at all, with a book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should one train up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself with competitors, due to the Forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the above traders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more, deserves being named “great”. So, one’s books should be published as memoirs. I am not attaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds and labor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who either stole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities.

Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners.

G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be better completed by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparov’s being a great chess player. And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grand masters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time.

Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtue of his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners.

At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact results in millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with an inferiority complex life-time pursuit.

And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget, whereas losses are titanic?

I am recalling the book titled “The Alchemy of Finance” by G. Soros (the one I’ve read in early 90-s). I admit, it’s interesting, instructive…, but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangled manner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly been understood by few only.

So what’s the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to any extent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording. You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Soros reflexivity theory of the countries’ cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentence confinement:

1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapid growth and flourish of economy.

2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a country’s economy faces a natural recession.

Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an American investor): when should those countries’ companies’ shares be purchased and when they are to be advantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? What’s going to happen in case one is too late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price?

Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by the dismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia.

There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to be grasped by few only?

The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much more instructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein.

The theory is permeated by Soros’s strategy: enter long on what’s shortly going to enjoy price growth with a 100% probability and “pull out” Your money along with profits before the companies enter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof. This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying my logics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex is essentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with going long or short on a currency with “tertium non datum”.

And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of my students reply ”Yes!”, indicating what exactly is to be added. I’ll present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that the Williams Alligator is but 50% effective.

Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005. (See Note below)

The Alligator’s jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams, one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points. Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts. Another example.

Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005. (See Note below)

Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upward opening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts. Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?

With the Alligator’s mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding 50% – counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarking on Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise…, You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williams’s technique, let alone other ones.

Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realize proper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism of Bill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority of traders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray…, even without any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader (moreover being the Alligator’s father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and a pullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards their interpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change?

These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature on Forex.

Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why the Forex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. While reading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at the market.

Let’s open one of them (E. Nayman’s “Trader’s Minor Encyclopedia” and “Master-trading: Secret Files”) to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposed to have the price of USD20-100.

You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: “Master-trading: Secret Files”, 320 pages of sheer secrets…

HOWEVER, I HAVEN’T FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! You are welcome to discuss an argue Yourself:

1. “The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics” being a detailed story of how a country’s macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stability promote the exchange rate growth.

A “valuable” secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FA secret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against its country’s economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue.

2. “Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof”. The author furnishes a “wise” recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAs diverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as per Fibonacci).

The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MA combination (should it be 21+55, as the author’s; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems; 5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results.

Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersection chief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a “lighter” MA has crossed a “heavier” one, say, upwards, but… thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersection again.

Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. (See Note below)

A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders’ losses.

Now, let’s call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certain circumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteria have ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages.

3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the following statement of Nayman’s: “a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullish trend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACD values”. Much of a secret, isn’t it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to any Forex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasn’t even taken effort to advise to perform inputs change from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer.

Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which fact inflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, no trend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead.

Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharp downturn. (See Note below)

Another example:

Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; a brief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn. (See Note below)

As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, we’ll touch in detail upon the ways to detect when MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not.

4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of “head’n’shoulders” and “double bottom” patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliest lectures on Forex.

And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal but in what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patterns are known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod for the backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below:

Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical “inverted H&S” (See Note below)

At 1.8871 there’s an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD above zero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signaling long entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up… nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916 and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts.

To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Nayman’s “Trader’s Minor Encyclopedia” and “Master-trading: secret files” purported at understanding why over 90% of traders turn losers after reading the books.

The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good “ABCs OF FOREX” thus giving birth to all Nayman’s merits and demerits.

The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners’ paying USD50-200 to various Forex training courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Nayman’s books, whose extracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies. Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basic course in a competent, popular and accessible way.

This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinize Nayman’s books, then only it’s worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead of loosing.

Nevertheless, there is a chief Nayman’s self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secret files with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve one’s Forex earnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions are famous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior to Nayman.

But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the “Master-trading: Secret Files” fascination, who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably.

Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open live accounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers’ staff managed to convince them in the incidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to be deposit killers.

With these facts being proclaimed, I don’t hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help. Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidental nature.

There could be NO OTHER WAY about it.

The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: “Trading Chaos” and “New aspects of exchange trading”, where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along with advertising the other ones’, viz. Elliott’s.

My book, “Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders” is purported at developing of THAT particular school of training traders to practical operation at Forex.

Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free of charge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to.

In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to;- to share A PORTION of his secrets in his “Trading Chaos”;- to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training;- not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least.

My book, “Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders” is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secret methods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities. Each of my book’s 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevant discrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.

B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of currency pairs (of 140-bar history each) that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that it’s feasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only (see: “Ally and adversary currencies”).

B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say, adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency travel options: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233.

B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a “safety cushion”, whereas I disclose and eliminate its shortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders.

B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quote reasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to the banks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria. Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all the others and I offer my own on-news trading style.

Forex Trading Is About Probabilities

Trading the forex market is about a game of probabilities. To some, it is a high powered game, risky and dangerous. To them, the bigger the risk, the bigger will be the profits. In some cases, the traders who are involved in this game are carried away by the emotions, and move into extremes, taking risky trades, gambling away their capital and fortune.

To the trained and successful traders, forex trading is about getting an edge in your trading, a favorable bias, identifying that trading action which is more likely to happen than not in your trade.

The FAP Turbo Core Trading Engine

That is why in programming the FAP Turbo trading software, Mack Michaels has included this important truth into the core trading engine. While Mack Michaels has used the Fibonacci principles as a main thrust of the FAP Turbo trading system, whatever trading system you use, be it patterns breakouts, oscillator signals, time and price trading, candlesticks and even neural networks and forecasting, you are essentially depending on gaining a positive bias to be more accurate. By recognizing the positive bias, you are able to identify the high probability trades, enter them correctly, and protect yourself against sudden retracements or pullbacks, and allow your profits to increase.

You Must Know This Truth About FAP Turbo

The FAP Turbo does not wait to find the perfect trading setup. So, do not waste time expecting FAP Turbo to generate you the trade that can make the largest profit such as in a perfect trading setup every time. In fact, there is no necessity to do so if your aim is to make money in the forex market. Rather, FAP Turbo applies itself diligently to enter the market when there is a positive bias- when there is a good signal that the currency has gone negative or positive already, and in an established trend, even if it is for a short period of time – and allows you to reap the profits quickly. In this way, there are numerous trades a day, each trade being identified by the FAP Turbo software which has been designed to allow you to draw small profits repeatedly like clockwork from the numerous trades a day. In like manner, it protects your trading capital as the risk management algorithms will kick in to get you out of a losing trade, and that is done on autopilot as well. This is the truth you must know about FAP Turbo – It gives you repeated small profits consistently and this profit accumulates as you enter and exit a trade often, creating an endless stream of smaller profits that build up into a torrent as time goes by.

Drawback in FAP Turbo

The only drawback is that you need to put a high level of confidence in this auto pilot robot trading software – to surrender control of your human decisions and not to fall prey to your emotions, to override the trading signals generated by the core trading engine of the FAP Turbo.

Overcoming Drawback By Historical Testing

But that is not a difficult task, because from backtesting of historical trades you can find an extremely high win-loss ratio at 95% , so that for 100 trades that you make, 95 times you were profitable! And as we all know, trading is a probability game. If you were correct 51% of the time, you would have made a profit and not a loss!

Overcoming Drawback by Live and Forward Testing

Even better is that you can validate the FAP Turbo trading system by live testing. Live testing is part of the validating of the trading system with forward or future data as they come. This is important because a trading system can be accurate on hindsight by curve fitting the price charts using historical data, but falls apart when tested with live and forward data. In this case, FAP Turbo even outperforms the backtests because from the study shown, FAP Turbo was twice as profitable in live testing. It is that good!

Overcoming Drawback by Trade Simulation

With FAP Turbo, you have the probabilities with you to be on the correct side of the trade. What is important is to gain a level of familiarity and a high level of confidence in actually following the signals and to trade them. This you must do in practice and in simulated trading to gain that experience in executing your trades. You can gain experience by using FAP Turbo in simulated trading and learn how to trust the forex robot and take the trades mechanically as they are generated.

Once you have done so, you are well on your way to become a successful forex trader with FAP Turbo forex.

This essay is based on the Premium Update posted on June 6th, 2009

This week we have seen precious metals and mining stocks peak, just as I’ve indicated in the previous Premium Update. In the summary of last week’s update I wrote that “Although prices of gold, silver and mining stocks are reaching their own resistance levels, such a correction will most likely be caused by some kind of catalyst, probably a strong move in the U.S. Dollar, or in the general stock market”. It turned out that the catalyst was in fact the U.S. Dollar, however I will get back to this issue later in this update.

I will start explaining my opinion on the current situation on the precious metals market, by covering one of our indicators (from the Charts section). It has been particularly useful in determining bottoms during the big comeback of the precious metals sector (approximately since October 2008). The SP Short Term Gold Stock Bottom Indicator has signaled virtually every important local bottom in the previous 8 months, and thus it is definitely worth including in this update. Please take a look at the chart below for details.

For those of you, who are not yet familiar with our Charts section – the buy signal is given, when indicator is below the dashed line and starts to rise (when value of the indicator has been falling for 3 consecutive days and then the next day is higher). It is based on data from more than one market (it’s much more complex than ratios), so it really is available on our website on an exclusive basis.

It was at the end of March 2009 when this indicator flashed the last “buy” signal. The reason that I mention this indicator today is not because of what it has just signaled, but because of the fact that it did NOT signal anything so far, and this situation is likely to change in the near future. Naturally, just as this indicator’s name suggests, I have designed it to help us determine particularly favorable moments to add to our long- and/or close/limit short positions in PM stocks. Since this indicator’s performance has been so impressive in the recent months, it makes sense to take a closer look at the way it works.

As I mentioned above, the first condition that needs to be met in order for this indicator to signal a speculative buying opportunity is that it needs to be below the dashed line. This line corresponds to the 0% level in the right vertical axis. Once the indicator goes below the dashed line, it will flash “buy” as soon as it turns up. Right now we have just seen this indicator break below the 0% level, so the “buy signal” is rather near. Of course, it may continue to fall for an additional week or two, but the history shows that it turns up rather quickly after going below the dashed line.

The implication of the above analysis for anyone interested in PM stocks is that we may soon have a favorable buying opportunity, as this indicator turns up. Naturally, many factors need to be considered (definitely more than one indicator), but given the extraordinary performance of this particular technique, one should not ignore it.

Similar thing can be said about physical metals, as they usually move together with the mining stocks (usually lagging behind them, but there are many exceptions from this general rule). In other words – gold and silver are positively correlated with mining stocks.

USD Index

Last week I mentioned that USD Index is in the oversold territory and bound for a quick bounce. This week that pullback materialized.

USD Index briefly touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and bounced. The question here is whether this was the ultimate bottom (unlikely in my view), a correction that is already completed (more likely), or the beginning of a several-week correction (even more likely).

For more detailed signals we need to consider a short term chart.

The short-term chart gives us additional resistance levels that might stop this rally, but none of them provides one decisive resistance level. Rallies that begin with a fake breakout or fake breakout tend to be stronger than those, who begin in a different way, so I expect this rally to continue in the following days. It’s too early to say where exactly this rally will end, but nonetheless I’ve marked the most probable topping area with a red ellipse. This corresponds to approximately 82-83 level.

In sum, the USD Index appears to have put a local bottom. It is too early to say where and when this rally may end, but short-term factors suggest that it will go above the 82 level. Analysis of USD Index from a long-term perspective provides us with additional details, but that part of my commentary is reserved for Premium Service Members.

Gold

This week gold has moved lower along with rise in the value of USD Index. As I mentioned above, U.S. Dollar is likely to move higher in the following days/weeks, we may see gold move even lower on a short-term basis. This is confirmed by the high, negative correlation between USD and gold, and the way volume shaped during the previous week.

If you looked at the volume from a broad perspective, you would not see anything extraordinary – the average value of volume has been neither exceptionally high, nor low. However, once you consider details, the outlook becomes rather bearish in the short term. The point here is that volume has been declining while gold has been rising and it rose along with declining gold price. Volume usually confirms the direction in which the market is headed, and this time it points to lower prices in coming days. Naturally, a day or two of pause are possible (and also quite likely), as gold is currently just at its support level, but still – it is likely that gold will move lower in the short term.

Silver

Similar analysis can be applied also to the silver market

As mentioned above, from the short term point of view, the situation on the silver market is currently similar to the one on the gold market. Moreover, the volume gives much clearer signals, as the difference between days when price of silver rose and days when it fell, is even more evident. Therefore, the silver market may also experience a correction from here.

Summary

The USD Index has just bounced after having declined for a month, which lead to lower values throughout the whole PM sector. Taking into account dollar’s previous correction and the technical situation in gold, silver, and mining stocks, we may expect this correction to continue for the next few days/weeks. Once this “breather” is complete, we will probably have a favorable buying opportunity, which will most likely be confirmed by indicators from our Charts section.

Naturally, long-term situation still remains bullish for the whole PM sector, as the fundamentals are favorable.

To make sure that you get immediate access to my thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, I urge you to sign up for my free e mail list. Sign up today and you’ll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM investors and speculators. It’s free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

P. Radomski Editor Sunshine Profits

Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders.

Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

By reading Mr. Radomski’s essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Is Your FOREX Signal Provider Being Honest About Performance?

I know you’ve seen some ridiculous claims from signal providers.  Some claim thousands of pips per month in winning trades.  I’ve sampled some of my competition’s FOREX trade signals to see how well they match their claims.  To make a long story short, THEY DON’T!  In fact, most report using what I call, “Apples and Oranges Reporting.”  Apples and Oranges Reporting is when a FOREX Signal Provider reports his losses in single lots, but sums his wins, claiming all of the pips for two or three take profit points.  I found a great example at a well known signal provider who’s charging $299.00 per month for his signals.

FOREX Signal Provider X reports having placed the following FOREX trade signal:

Sell EUR/USD@1.3367  SL:1.3405  TP1:1.3337  TP2:1.3307 TP3:1.3257 

The risk is 38 pips

The profit at TP1 = 30 pips

The profit at TP2 = 60 pips

The profit at TP3 = 110 pips

This trade was picked up and reached TP1 and TP2.  Price then turned around and the rest of the position was quickly stopped out.  

The reported profit for this trade is +90 pips!  FOREX Signal Provider X claims the first 2 take profits as full positions—when they are really two thirds of one position—yet ignores the 38 pip loss for the last “lot”. There are a few things wrong with this scenario.  Remember, this is an actual FOREX Signal from one of those other guys.  Pay attention because this is a very popular way for FOREX Signal Providers to exaggerate their wins.  First, the reported profit is absolutely FALSE!  There was not a 90 pip profit. Price did not even move 90 pips during the trade, unless you count the reversal.  The real profit was 17.16 pips.  How do I calculate that?  I simply use a weighted earnings formula.  Since the trade is broken up into thirds, I use a 0.33 multiplier for each of the wins and losses.  Then I add the wins and subtract the loss. 

 (30 x 0.33) + (60 x 0.33) – (38 x 0.33) = 17.16 pips   

The second problem is that the reward-to-risk ratio on this trade is horrible!  

Using the same weighting formula as before, we find a maximum 66 pip gain [(30 x .33) + (60 x .33) + (110 x .33)] vs. a potential 38 pip loss.  Why?  Because our profits reduce as the trade progresses, but the loss is total.  I could get into more depth on this, but simply put, the best case scenario makes this a low value trade.  Market Mover Edge FOREX Signals are only considered with a reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1 or more.  I seek out—and often find—those “treasure trades” with a 4:1, 5:1 or even 6:1 reward to risk ratio. 

     Finally, I have to mention that this FOREX Trade Signal had almost no possibility of making it to the third take profit target.  This was a counter-trend trade that was projected to hit an important Fibonacci level near TP2.  Counter-trend trades are risky when they are good setups.  They’re suicide when the analysis is flawed.

     Market Mover Edge FOREX Signal reporting is two-fold.  First, I report all wins and losses.  Some of my trades have what I call the Risk-Free Trading Zone.  These are trades where I call a ½ take profit to preserve your capital in case of a jittery market.  Again, a few trades I recommend taking a ½ position.  This is all recorded and visible to all on the performance page.  No games, no tricks, no polishing—just honest reporting.  I have losses!  I’m proud to report those losses.  It’s how I handle losses that makes me successful.  My intra-day results from 1 May 2009 to 22 May 2009 were:

USDCHF/Short – 4 May 2009  +106 pips

EURUSD/Long – 5 May 2009  +128 pips

EURUSD/Long – 6 May 2009  -25 pips

GBPUSD/Long – 7 May 2009  -59 pips

GBPUSD/Long – 8 May 2009  +100 pips

USDCAD/Short – 13 May 2009  -28 pips

GBPUSD/Long – 15 May 2009  + 200 pips

GBPJPY/Long – 17 May 2009  +27 pips (gap)

USDJPY/Long – 17 May 2009  +20 pips (gap)

EURJPY/Long – 17 May 2009  Flat (gap)

GBPUSD/Short – 18 May 2009  -30 pips

USDCAD/Long – 18 May 2009  -5 pips

EURUSD/Short – 18 May 2009  -26

USDCHF/Short 20 May 2009 – +61 pips

USDCHF/Short – 21 May 2009 – +109 pips

Total:  +578 pips  Please see our performance page for more in-depth details.

     Market Mover Edge Weekly Extreme trades for May SO FAR are over 1100 pips!  My earnings are actually 1119 pips, but others entered later or earlier and got a few more or a few less. 

     Now that you know how to debunk the typical FOREX Signal Provider’s accounting practice, it’s time to demand the very best.  Honesty, accuracy AND performance can and does come in one service—Market Mover Edge.  See you in our private trading room after you’ve joined our team!  Welcome home, fellow trader.  Let’s go rip some pips!

 

 

Math coursework can be very interesting depending on the topic you choose. There are so many interesting facts in mathematics that you will enjoy while working in this subject. The numerals, now in everyday use are called Arabic numerals, because it was from the Arabs that these numerals spread to Europe. The concept of zero and the digital system are India’s contributions to the science of numerals. The Arabs adopted the Indian system. The Europeans got it from the Arabs.

Roman numerals are those used by the Romans. They are letters converted into numbers like 1=I, 5=V, 10=X etc. They do not follow the digital system of Arab numerals. The general rules of the Roman numerals are the following: 1) Repeating a letter repeats its value: XX=10+10=20 (2) A letter placed after one of greater value adds thereto: VI=5+1=6 (3) A letter placed before another of greater value subtracts there from: IV=5-1=4 (4) A dash over a numeral multiplies its values by thousand.

Some high Arabic numerals cause a lot of confusion when used as words. The classic instance is billion which in US is equal to a thousand million and in Britain to a million million.

Mathematicians often say that all numbers have some interesting properties. Here are some of the interesting properties:

1)      Zero was not originally recognized as a number. The first known reference to zero was in India around AD 900. It was primarily used to hold a place in a number (so that 101 and 11 could be told apart). It is the only number that can’t be used as a divisor.

2)      The Golden Ratio was recognized by the Greeks as producing self similar divisions of a line segment or self similar triangles. It is also the only number from which you can obtain the reciprocal by subtracting 1. It is also the limiting ratio of adjacent terms in the Fibonacci series.

3)      Five is interesting in so many ways that some have called it the most interesting number of them all. There are 5 platonic solids. Equations with exponents of 5 or greater cannot always be solved by algebraic means. According to the Banach Tarski theorem, a sphere can be disassembled into 5 pieces and be reassembled as a different size( with no overlaps or holes)

4)      The smallest perfect number is 6. It is also the smallest number whose cube is itself the sum of three cubes.

5)      Nine is interesting in the decimal system, although it would be much less interesting in some other method of writing numbers.

6)      Seventeen is the only number that is the sum of four consecutive prime numbers: 17=2+3+5+7 and is the number of possible different ways to cover a plane with symmetric figures.

7)      39 is the smallest whole number for which mathematicians have not found any interesting property.

8)      If some mathematical relation is such that it alternates between critical values, hovering on the brink of catastrophe, the ratio of the successive critical values will get closer and closer to feigenbaum’s number, which is approximately 4.66920160910299097.

W D Gann developed technical trading systems that made him a fortune of in excess of 50 million dollars.
Gann was a trading legend and his stature is reflected in the life size portrait people see when they enter the New York Stock Exchange.
Gann Angles were one of his most effective tools so let’s look at them.
What do they do?
Gann angles allow you to pinpoint your entry and exit levels for bigger profit potential.
Let’s look at why Gann angles work.
Gann based his investment strategy on the fact that by studying the Past we can see patterns that will be reflected in the future which is true of any technical systems, but his view was unique on how these patterns occurred
Gann based his methods on the following:
1. Price, time, and range are the only three factors relevant to market movement.
2. Markets are cyclical in nature.
3. Financial price movements are geometric in design and function.
Gann believed that market movements were a reflection of human nature which is constant over time and by studying the past we can predict the future.
Gann’s use of angles
Gann’s used three patterns to predict market behavior in the future
1. Price study This uses support and resistance lines, pivot points and angles.
2. Time study This looks at historically reoccurring dates derived from natural order that Gann believed governed market movement.
3. Pattern study This studies trends using trend lines and reversal patterns.
Using Gann angles requires practice and experience and below we have outlined tha basics that anyone using Gann angles should keep in mind.
Firstly, determine time units.
The way to determine a time unit is to study charts and look at the distances in which significant price movements occur.
Put the angles to the test and see how they perform.
The intermediate time period ( 1 – 3 months) tends to produce the highest number of accurate patterns and is the time frame to trade.
Secondly, a trader needs to determine the high or low from which to draw the Gann lines
Here you can use Fibonacci levels or pivot points to help you get an accurate picture .
Gann then looked for “vibrations” or “price swings.”
Finally, you need to know which pattern to use:
The most common patterns are the 1×1, the 1×2, and the 2x and are purely differences in the slope of the line.
The 1×2 is half the slope of the 1×1.
The numbers simply indicate the number of units and the slope of the line.
Traders need to look for patterns to trade.
The direction of the slope will be either down and to the right from a high point or up and to the right, if it’s a low point.
Always look for repeat patterns on the charts.
Gann’ theories are based upon the cyclical in nature of market movement, so the easier the patterns are to spot the more likely they will be tradable for profit.
Using Gann Angles for Trading Profits
Gann angles are a fantastic tool for predicting support and resistance levels.
Of course, many other trading methods use support and resistance lines however Gann angles add a new dimension, simply because they are diagonal.
The best Gann Formation
Will indicate a balance between time and price.
This will occur when prices move in synch with time.
This is present when the Gann angle being studied is at exactly 45 degrees.
In total there are nine different Gann angles that can be applied.
When one line is broken, the following angle will then give the next area of support or resistance.
Gann angles are just one of the tools He used to amass a fortune trading other include, the Golden ratio, Fibonacci numbers when combined you have a powerful proven trading method.
As markets are cyclical and human nature never changes Gann’s methods still apply today and are used by many savvy traders.
Gann made millions from Gann angles and the tools above study his methods further and see what they can do for your trading and you may be glad you did

The Foreign exchange market or forex market occurs wherever one foreign currency is traded for another. It is the largest market in the world with daily trading of US $1.9 billion. Individuals actually make up a very small part of this market and when they do participate they do so through a broker or other professional trader. In order to play the trading game, one must know how to forex forecast correctly. There are two major ways to do this: technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

To forex forecast using technical analysis, you must understand a variety of technical analysis tools. Such tools include the relative strength index (RSI), stochastic oscillator, moving average convergence divergence (MACD), number theories, waves, gaps, and trends. The RSI, stochastic oscillator, MACD, gaps and trends are all extremely common technical analysis tools for those trying to forecast as well as play the stock market. While these tools can be used for the stock market, they can be used equally as well in forex forecasting.

Both the RSI and stochastic oscillator measure whether a currency is overbought or under-bought. The MACD on the other hand measures whether or not a trend will continue going up or down. When using charts to forex forecast, one may notice gaps between the bars. This occurs when no trading took place and an up-gap usually represents a strong market force, while a down-gap will indicate the opposite. The trends or Trendlines indicate an upward price movement or downward price movement based on the peaks and troughs of the trendline. None of these technical analysis tools require you to do the math. There are plenty of charts services on the web that are either free or require a fee that can do these calculations for you.

Other technical analysis tools that were mentioned include number theories. The two main number theories are the Fibonacci and the Gann. The Fibonacci numbers involve adding numbers to come to a ratio of 62% that is a popular retracement number. The Gann numbers are based on the theory of W.D. Gann who during the 1950s made an extraordinary amount of money performing forex forecasting. Gann used a variety of forecasting methods in order to measure price movement and time. These are presently known as price/time equivalents. To learn more about technical analysis tools and how to use them, one can turn to the web or their local bookstore. There are plenty of sites and books whose goal it is to teach people the art of forex forecasting. Keep in mind, that forex forecasting using technical analysis is not easy and it will require a great amount of studying. When it comes to performing technical analysis, some people prefer one analysis tool to another and this is not an indicator of which method is actually better. It is just a matter of personal preference.

The other method of forex forecasting, fundamental analysis, involves using factors outside of charts and numbers. The factors include political, environmental, and economic issues. For example, if a hurricane hit the United States coast and shut down a lot of major refineries the result on gas prices could influence the strength of the dollar. The fundamental analyst looks at the big picture of a country and the world and they must be extremely familiar with political, economic, and environmental news around the world. Fundamental analysis is not for someone who picks up a paper once a week. It requires devotion and a true interest in issues around the world.

When forex forecasting, some people choose to use either fundamental or technical analysis based on what works the best for them. However, it is probably best if you have strength in one method of analysis, but still reference the other. This is because there is not one single method that will provide you with the right answer. Also, while the technical chart may show a strong currency, if you are not aware of political and economic issues within a country then you could be blindsided, thusly losing a lot of money. Prior to forex forecasting, you should practice by paying attention to trading levels and picking your entry and exit points. When you feel you have reach a good point in successful forex forecasting practicing then you can move on to real forex forecasting.